This isn’t a Masters preview. Instead, the Masters is a great excuse to analyze the most compelling guys there—Tiger and Phil. Specifically, this is a look at Mickelson’s career through the lens of Tiger.
The genesis of this piece was back in February at, ironically, the Genesis Open. I was parked on the couch watching golf and scrolling through twitter when a specific tweet (which I cannot find) caught my eye. It essentially posed a question to the effect of “wouldn’t it be just like Phil to win while Tiger is making this amazing comeback?” My immediate reaction was of course, but it made me want to dig in and look closely at Mickelson’s numbers during different points of Tiger’s career.
A few quick notes before diving in:
– All stats are compiled using numbers off PGATour.com
– Calculating average finish, missed cuts are assigned a 120th place finish and w/d’s were removed altogether (neither guy had enough to materially impact things)
Ok, here we go…
THE PRE-TIGER YEARS (July 1992 to August 1996)
“When I came out on tour, in 1992, or when I won the Tucson Open [as an amateur] the purse — the entire purse — and the winner’s cheque was $180,000. I remember thinking in the mid-90s, ‘I wonder if someday we’ll play for a million dollar first-place check. I don’t know, probably not in my lifetime, but I hope we do.’” -Phil Mickelson to David Feherty, on Golf Channel’s “Feherty” (March 2017)
Mickelson’s first pro start was in the spring of 1992 at Pebble Beach in the U.S. Open. He missed the cut going 68-81 in the first two rounds, an apt microcosm of his tortured relationship with the event. For all intents and purposes, these were halcyon days out on Tour. Annual money leaders were pocketing somewhere in the neighborhood of $1.5 million, the OWGR was an eclectic mixture of body types, swing types, and personalities, and the equipment was relatively antiquated, at least by today’s NASA-lite standards.
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Much was expected of Mickelson after a storied amateur career, and he settled into a good amount of professional success. Along with eight wins in four years, he had dope sponsorships, exquisite hair game, and scored a cameo in Tin Cup. Below are Phil’s key performance metrics from this specific time period:
Phil Mickelson: Pre-Tiger Era Starts 95 Made Cut % 73.7% Avg. Finish 48.5 Wins 8 Win % 8.42% Majors 0 for 13 Avg. Finish 40.5
His talent was indisputable, his game was good and it was a foregone conclusion he’d nab a major sooner rather than later. But Tiger was coming, and I’m not sure anybody outside Eldrick’s inner circle understood what that would mean for both professional golf and Phil Mickelson.
HELLO WORLD (September 1996 to November 1998)
“…And now we do every week, and that’s because of Tiger.” -Phil Mickelson to David Feherty, on Golf Channel’s “Feherty” (March 2017)
Tiger’s first start was Milwaukee at the beginning of September 1996 but the first time he and Mickelson crossed paths as professionals was October of that year at the Las Vegas Invitational. There Mickelson played good golf finishing T8 but Tiger proved better capturing his first tour win. This little connection between the two pops up again and again throughout their careers, to the point it’s hard to believe it can all be coincidence.
Tiger announced his arrival to the world at Augusta in 1997 and nothing was the same in pro golf. To put the changing economics in context consider this—in the five seasons between 1992 and 1996 there were twelve total instances of a player finishing a season with more than $1.5 million in earnings on the PGA Tour. In 1999, the season immediately following Tiger’s ‘Hello World’ period, TWENTY-FOUR different guys earned over $1.5 million for the year (including Ted Tryba!!!).
How did Mickelson’s game shift during this period? As you see below, somewhat surprisingly, he was remarkably similar to the player he had been before Tiger arrived. A bit more consistent week to week but otherwise not much change, and of course, no majors yet.
Phil Mickelson: Pre-Tiger Hello World Starts 95 48 Made Cut % 73.7% 85.4% Avg. Finish 48.5 34.7 Wins 8 4 Win % 8.42% 8.33% Majors 0 for 13 0 for 8 Avg. Finish 40.5 43.9
Tiger then ramped up his game to peak levels. I was very curious to see what Mickelson did in response.
#PEAKTIGER (January 1999 to April 2004)
“Alright, alright” -Phil Mickelson, 1st tee box, 2002 Tour Championship
I encourage everybody to click the link above to watch the clip from the 2002 Tour Championship. It’s such an innocuous, legitimately funny quip, yet conveys so much about where each player found themselves at the time. Tiger was the unquestioned, absolute King, and it had to be eating Phil up inside.
Before we look at Mickelson’s performance during Tiger’s run, here is a quick rundown of some of my favorite Tiger numbers during this five-year stretch:
– didn’t miss a single cut. Not one ‘off’ week in over 5 years.
– won 33 PGA Tour events
– won 7 major titles, including the ‘Tiger Slam’
– average finish in twenty majors was 10.7. His average finish across all PGA Tour starts was 8.96. Basically lived in the top-10 for five years. Again, staggering.
Tiger was at the height of his craft. Before I ran the numbers I would have guessed Mickelson’s game took a step back during this time. I think that’s because his reputation as the loveable loser, guy who couldn’t get over the hump in majors was firmly taking root in the public’s mind at this time.
Here are the stats:
Phil Mickelson: Pre-Tiger Hello World #PeakTiger Starts 95 48 126 Made Cut % 73.7% 85.4% 88.9% Avg. Finish 48.5 34.7 29.2 Wins 8 4 9 Win % 8.42% 8.33% 7.14% Majors 0 for 13 0 for 8 0 for 20 Avg. Finish 40.5 43.9 25.8
Phil’s performance really ticked up! He was making more and more cuts (leading to a higher average finish), his win rate held impressively steady, especially given Tiger’s deal, and his major finishes improved drastically. It’s easy to remember this period as one of near-misses and ‘what-ifs’ for Phil, but in hindsight, that’s not nearly the whole story. It’s eye-opening to see the degree to which he stepped his game up, in direct response to Tiger. Now he just needed to break through at a major…
THE ‘JUMP’ (April 2004 to June 2006)
“I would not have played as well as I have throughout my career had it not been for him…he’s the one that got me started working out back in 2003…” -Phil Mickelson, on the Dan Patrick Radio Show (March 8, 2018)
Pun intended. Mickelson of course broke through at the 2004 Masters. His celebratory leap as the winning putt dropped marked a huge jump in his game. I submit that people don’t appreciate how good Phil was during this period. Here are the stats:
Phil Mickelson: Pre-Tiger Hello World #PeakTiger The ‘Jump’ Starts 95 48 126 48 Made Cut % 73.7% 85.4% 88.9% 93.8% Avg. Finish 48.5 34.7 29.2 23.7 Wins 8 4 9 7 Win % 8.42% 8.33% 7.14% 14.58% Majors 0 for 13 0 for 8 0 for 20 3 for 10 Avg. Finish 40.5 43.9 25.8 11.9
Continued uptick in cuts, average finish dropping, and look at that win rate! Nearly 15% in the age of Tiger. And the majors, there were three of them, with several other good looks. For comparison’s sake, Tiger won 8 times in this stretch, including 2 majors and an average major finish of 20.3 (note: includes a missed cut at the 2006 US Open; not counting that he was at 9.2). Bottom line, while Tiger was off his ridiculous peak, Phil was truly standing in the middle of the ring trading punches with Tiger as a legitimate rival.
But then came Winged Foot…
ICARUS (June 2006 to November 2009)
“I still am in shock that I did that. I just can’t believe that I did that. I am such an idiot.” -Phil Mickelson, as quot Source: https://nolayingup.com/blog/phil-tiger-masters-non-preview