Making Picks: Honda Classic | No Laying Up

17 MAR 2021 - WALK IT IN

Walking it Back:

Another breakdown is on the tee for the Honda Classic this week, but before we do let’s grade the scorecards from this past week at THE PLAYERS. The week before, at Bay Hill, we saw a little good and a little bad from the NLU guys. This past week, however, the scorecard was littered with the kind of trouble you can find at TPC Sawgrass, and it created a number of MIAs on the weekend tee sheet for a lot of the guys on the card.

TC does remain the Draft King even after his nuggies week made a quick exit stage left. The Morikawa win bet never really got going, and guys like Fleetwood and Simpson (who the Walk It In boys thought had a high floor last weekend) both missed the cut. Niemann never really sniffed Top 10 territory, but we saw zero Mav McNealy club twirls this weekend and zero time in the Top 30 with a +13 in two days.

Soly remains in green figures, and he picked up a nice win with Paul Casey’s top 10 (had 20 nuggies at +400) which helped soften the blow of Adam Scott, Hovland (damn that ball mark being moved in the wrong direction), Morikawa, and Na doing a whole lot of nothing throughout the week.

Randy is our next guy on the standings (albeit one in the red figures for the season) who had another sea of red scorecard at THE PLAYERS. DJ never figured it out all week and never flirted with the Top 20 let alone a win bet. Scottie Scheffler (much to Jeff’s win bet dismay as well) didn’t even get a chance at it with a missed cut and NeSmith followed suit. He did have a close encounter with a Keegan Bradley Top 20, but a poor round three sunk the charge on Sunday.

DJ stayed out of the cellar even with a full miss on the scorecard (thanks to Neil - more to come on that). All 5 win bets (DJ, Rahm, Morikawa, Berger, and Homa) found very little fortune over the weekend. You can argue Rahm and Berger thought about it, but neither guy had the stuff for four rounds.

Neil took a page out of DJ’s book, and went for a full on Pacific Life logo breach last week with another five win bets. He spread the nuggies equally and all five crushed him. Not only did they not win...all five failed to make the cut. You can argue that Hovland’s two-shot penalty was less about his form, but he didn’t get it together on Friday. Xander, Rory, Cantlay, and Fleetwood all cratered almost immediately in Jacksonville (image if Finau made this card - woof).

Both Mark and Jeff were slightly in the negative last week (Mark down .9 units and Jeff down 1.5 units), but are looking for some good swing thoughts in the final showdown on the Florida swing. Both guys were all over Corey Conners and Matt Fitzpatrick this past week for their Top 20 bets. While Mark eeked out the better weekend over Jeff by hitting Paul Casey as the Top former ASU player over Rahm. It was a week of what could have been with three of our top 20 picks (Reed, Zalatoris, Ancer) all finishing two shots outside the money.

The Approach

If you’re going to putt for dough it helps when you’ve given yourself more putts inside the leather than double breakers so where are the guys looking this week on their approach? Jeff goes first for Honda after finishing furthest out after THE PLAYERS.

Jeff: Back to back weeks on courses with lots of history, and last week’s talk of the gambling town was find yourself a ball striker (good win, JT). It’s no different this week, but there is a bit of short game flavor here as well because the GIR % is much lower on a very tough course. This week’s card will pull together SG: Approach, GIR % leaders, and SG: Around the Green. As always, course history will be in the conversation given the difficulties of this course, but it won’t deter me from a saucy short game or pin seeking irons.

Mark: PGA National is yet another difficult Florida course with tight fairways, hazards all over the place and small, Bermuda greens! I’m definitely going to favor golfers who have played well the last few weeks on similar courses and history shows you need to have a good week hitting the greens if you want to succeed here. The field is extremely weak and there’s a bunch of value out there if you look in the right places.

Inside the Leather

Jeff’s Picks:

Chris Kirk Top 20 (+225) - 2 units

Kirk faded on Sunday at the Players with a nasty 78, but he was in red figures Thursday-Saturday. I like his overall game right now and the numbers look good long term and short term with his around the green strokes gained and strokes gained on approach. He’s 13th in the field in the last 24 rounds on approach and 3rd in Tee to Green in the same time span. Two missed cuts here don’t scare me because he’s played this event 9 straight years.

Brendan Steele Top 20 (+225) - 1 unit

This guy’s driver is a laser and I want to avoid the rough this week off the tee. Yeah maybe he doesn’t have to pull driver as often on a shorter course, but it’s a Par 70 so I still think it’ll get plenty of action. I like that Steele is comfortable on a tough track with four of the last five appearances being top 15 or better (4th last year). He’s in the top half of the field in approach and 13th in SG: Around the Green in the last 24 rounds.

Russell Henley Top 20 (+163) - 1 unit

A missed cut last week isn’t too much to worry about with Russell because he enjoys PGA National. He’s got three straight 24th or better and win back in ‘14. He’s a ball striker, so say the stats, coming in at 11th in the field in the last 24 rounds and 3rd in the field in the last year. He’s cooled off after a torrid start to the 2021 season (which started in the fall of 2020), but I think he’ll show off with the irons.

Doug Ghim Top 20 (+225) - 1 unit

I don’t care how gut wrenching his Sunday must have been. This is a young guy who got a taste of things last week (keep an eye on Brandon Wu this week in a similar spot), and I think he comes out ready to prove something. He’s got a great all around game and is catching more than 2-1 to place Top 20. His OTT game isn’t great (and that’s where the wheels fell off at The Players), but he won’t need it that much this week and can focus on his strong iron game.

Mark’s Picks:

Lee Westwood (+105) over Adam Scott - 1 unit

HEAT CHECK! The way Lee Westwood is playing the last few weeks, plus money against Adam Scott seems awfully enticing. Both these guys have very good history here, but Westwood’s is just a bit better and Scott only has one top 10 and two top 30’s this year.

Shane Lowry Top 30 (+110) - 2 units

The Irishman finished 8th last week at The PLAYERS with three rounds in the 60’s and has been in good form lately. He ranks 4th in the Honda field in SG: T2G over his last 16 rounds and finished T21 here last year. He’s also known for being a good player in windy conditions if he has to battle that this week.

Brendan Steele Top 20 (+225) - 1 unit

Steele has been pretty consistent all year, making seven straight cuts and performing well in all areas. He ranks 23rd tee-to-green in his last 16 rounds, 33rd in putting and 16th total. Combine that with his record here at PGA National (8 made cuts in 9 trips, T4 last year) and he’s a good bet to play well.

Kevin Streelman Top 20 (+250) - 1 unit

My money always seems to find him on short courses that reward good iron players and this week is no different. He’s an extremely accurate golfer and ranks 9th in SG: T2G and 18th in SG: Approach in his last 16 rounds. For the entire season he is 17th in GIR%.

Double Breaker

Jeff’s Picks:

Richy Werenski Top 20 +450 - 1 unit

Ricky continues to dance around leaderboards this year with three top 25s since end of January at the American Express. He packs a solid approach game with a nice short game (top 30 in the field in both in the last 24 rounds. His GIR% is horrific at 187th in the PGA Tour this year, but did place 17th here last year. It’s a flier and I’m holding on tight.

Wesley Bryan Top 20 +500 - 1 unit

Another guy in the flier category is two first names, Wesley Bryan. He has been injured for two years in row, but he’s getting back into the swing of things. He’s gone 1 for 2 here with made cuts and was 4th in ‘17. He put a solid four rounds together at Genesis and he put together a really nice stretch during this run on the calendar in ‘17. He’s young at 29 so maybe he’s getting healthy and we can get some nice odds.

Matchup Parlay:<

Source: https://nolayingup.com/blog/making-picks-honda-classic