At the buzzer, but still got it in before it turned December. The November Mailbag! Let’s go…
@NoLayingUp who will the 4 major winners be?
— Will Ogden (@Willogden11) November 26, 2016
Usually this question gets asked repeatedly in every mailbag, but this is actually the first time it’s come through this year! You guys are slacking.
My picks this year are incredibly boring, and embarrassingly consistent with last year’s picks. Those picks treated me really well, and I have my reasons for keeping them nearly the same.
Masters – Jordan Spieth
As far as I’m concerned, he should be the favorite at Augusta every year. He’s played in three Masters, and has been beaten by a total of two guys. The fact that he only has one green jacket is actually pretty remarkable, and I’m going to pick him to win the Masters probably every year for the next five. It can’t be a fluke that he’s played this well in 12 straight rounds at a course that players have spent a lifetime trying to figure out, and I put next to no stock in what happened on 12 last year. I’m not gonna overthink this one, and go with JS all over again.
US Open – Dustin Johnson
From what I’ve gathered about Erin Hills, it’s gonna be long, and it’s gonna favor guys that pound it long and straight off the tee. DJ applied that strategy to winning his first major at Oakmont, and I see him doing it again in Wisconsin in 2017.
Open Championship – Brooks Koepka
I mentioned last week that after his win in Japan, Koepka looks like he’s about to make “The Leap.” The start of his career has been impressive, but what we saw from him in the Ryder Cup, in a losing effort in Vegas, and in dominant fashion in Japan makes me think he’s going to springboard into 2017 and become a major winner. In all honesty, I really just want to pick him to win a major in 2017, and The Open is the only one I couldn’t make a firm decision on, so he gets the Open by default. I was so impressed by his ball striking in Vegas, but even more so by his putting stroke. There’s a lot of young guys out there that can move it, but none of them have as complete of a game as Koepka.
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PGA Championship – Rory McIlroy
This is going to be a REALLY popular pick. The only reason I don’t want to make the pick is because everyone is going to have him winning at Quail Hollow, and the guy that everyone thinks is going to win almost never wins. But he’s dominated at this course, and I just can’t picture him going three straight years without winning a major. Also, I have blinders on when it comes to this guy, but am proud of myself for not picking him to win all four majors.
@NoLayingUp will tiger play all four rounds?
Are we sure @TronCarterNLU is actually a real person or is he someone's angry alter ego?
— Kevin (@just4sportsacct) November 25, 2016
Yes, Big Cat will play all four rounds.
I can in fact confirm that Tron is a real person. His incendiary twitter takes can melt steel beams at times, but if you hear him in podcast form (on the Trap Draw podcast, or some of his many appearances on the No Laying Up podcast), you’ll understand him a lot better. And when he sets his mind to it, the guy can flat out write. His takes make a lot more sense when (Steve) fleshed out in longer form than 140 characters. What I’m excited for though is the fact that there’s about to be a baby Tron, which means sleepness nights for Big Tron, which means fire retardant suits may be required before opening your twitter app.
@NoLayingUp If NLU started in 1996, who is your ZJ/Kuch and who is your Brooks?
— Michael Shafrir (@michaelshafrir) November 25, 2016
Ooh, this is a fun one. I’m gonna start by taking a look back at my man crushes over the years. Usually I see something in a guy in year one, then spend the offseason trying to predict their launch into the winner’s circle the following year. So in the example below, I saw something from Gary Woodland in 2010 (one tee shot he hit at the US Open at Pebble) that made me fall in love and predict a breakout in 2011.
2011 – Gary Woodland (as mentioned, the driver-sand wedge he hit into the par five second hole on Friday).
2012 – Kyle Stanley (the driver-wedge he hit into the 590 yard 10th at TPC Deere Run, and the subsequent ball striking display he put on following that)
2013 – Billy Horschel (no moment in particular, but the crisp ball striking and the ridiculous GIR% he put up in 2012).
2014 – Brooks Koepka
2015 – Justin Thomas
2016 – Ollie Schniederjans
2017 – Brandon Hagy
I’ve been on the Hagy train for a few years, but now that he’s got his tour card, the rest of the world gets to jump on board. This guy’s swing is silk, and pound for pound, there might not be a longer guy on tour not named Justin Thomas. More on him hopefully very soon….
10 year old, 1996 me would have likely made some much more questionable decisions. As a kid, I had an un-explainable fondness for Justin Leonard, but part of me thinks that the ’99 Ryder Cup had something to do with that. When I was like eight or something, Billy Andrade gave me a ball and a glove and I legitimately thought we were friends. Like I would go up to him every year at the Memorial and say hi to him thinking that he would remember me. Those things stick with you as a kid.
In reality, the ’96 man crush had to be Big Cat right? We didn’t have YouTube and all of these other ways to find out about the up and coming guys, and every ounce of media attention went towards this guy’s debut, and deservedly so. Was there even really an opportunity to be a fanboy of anyone else of that era?
For the ZJ/Kuch comparison – there are way too many guys in the mid-90’s that fit this boring profile. This era is essentially defined by the Jeff Sluman types that habitually laid up and cashed checks. What made Tiger so compelling was not only the immediate success he enjoyed, but the fact that he transformed the way the game is played.
@NoLayingUp Which Spieth shows up in 2017?
— Will Bardwell (@willbardwell) November 25, 2016
I’m guessing that most people reading this site are aware that Spieth’s 2016 season was not the disaster that many in the media want to make you think it was. Regardless, let’s first look at the trend in strokes gained from 2015 to 2016.
Outside of putting, Spieth did everything a little bit worse in 2016 than 2015, and his iron play was significantly worse. But right there, I just made the mistake that everyone seems to be making. I think Spieth would tell you that the 2015 season was an out of body experience that is unlikely to replicated. Which is understandable! It was legitimately one of the best PGA Tour seasons I’ve seen in my lifetime by someone not named Tiger Woods. So why are we using that as the baseline?
While 2016 was a good season any measure, I also think Spieth would tell you that he expects more of himself in 2017. I think we’ll see him hold steady in his driving numbers, improve significantly on his iron play (approach the green stat), and maintain his top-10 putting. This should put him somewhere in the range of about 1.8 strokes gained, firmly between his 2015 and 2016 seasons. I think that’s where his true talent level lies, and I think that’s what we can expect to see from him going forward in his career.
How that translates to success on the course (in terms of results, wi