While I certainly intended to get this follow up to Part I of the Ryder Cup tracker out sooner than this, I’m glad, in some ways, that it’s taken a little while. Since we last got #deep on the European Tour, I’ve been traveling, working, sleeping, writing (a special feature that I’m really excited about), working some more, and even playing a little golf! After a little time off, I’ve gotta say–it feels good to get back into the Eurozone beat. Of course, with a strong international contingent at The Players this week, there’s a good chance that this installment may be moot by the time the sun sets over Ponte Vedra Beach on Sunday.
We’ve certainly seen the Team Europe standings tightening and shifting since Part I debuted on March 17, 2018. Over the past six weeks, starting with Noren’s performance at the WGC-Match Play and Casey’s Sunday flirtation with the course-record at Augusta, it feels like we might be able to lock-in eleven out of the twelve available Ryder Cup slots–in May! And there are conceivably eight or more players battling for the final slot.
My gut says that I’m a bit silly for writing this, just because it seems premature (read: absurd) to say that ten or eleven players are locks roughly five months before the matches begin–but what’s more, that up to a dozen possible contributors to this European squad are going to be left home. Let’s just say that I will not be shocked to see any of the following guys listed make the team, but it will be heartbreaking to see the others have to wait until 2020 for their next shot.
As a reminder, here are the eight gentlemen that I picked as “Locks” in Part I: Justin Rose, Sergio Garcia, Rory McIlroy, Henrik Stenson, Matt Fitzpatrick, Tyrell Hatton, Jon Rahm, and Tommy Fleetwood. Of those eight, I am 100% sticking with seven of them, and still feel 85% good about Fitzpatrick.
The Midnight Troubadour
Tough and timeless, this polo is built for the long ride. Featuring a crisp, non-collapsing collar and a rugged, stretchy fabric, it's the perfect shirt for any cowboy's wardrobe.
At this point, I think it makes sense to set up the remaining players much like one would look at the NCAA Basketball Tournament bubble in late February, with a “Last Four In,” “First Four Out,” and “Next Four Out,” along with the “Best of the Rest” category. However, we’re actually going to make the first group a “Last FIVE In,” dropping Fitzpatrick down into that group. Fitz is slowly becoming the Forgotten Man, despite solidly sitting in fifth in the European Points and ninth in the World Points. Just keep in mind as you are reading this how razor thin the margins are between some of these players. Given the number of guys we’re talking about, I’ll give some brief rationale for these projections.
Last Five In
Matt Fitzpatrick
I won’t rehash the case I made for Fitz in Part I. I stand by my selection, but I think it’s now fair to move him from a solid lock into the “Last Five In” basket. Simply put, his record at Hazeltine did little to help his chances (in fairness, he had few opportunities, but you still have to make the most of them), and there are now simply too many players with either substantial Ryder Cup experience or more recent form that are going to be gunning for the last spot. If Fitzpatrick doesn’t nail down an automatic qualification, as close as he is to one, it would mean his form is trending in the wrong direction and that would be plenty enough reason for Bjorn to look elsewhere.
Alexander Norén
Age: 35 Current European Points ranking: #16 Current World Points ranking: #7 OWGR: #18 Notable prior match play experience: 3rd, 2018 WGC-Match Play; 2018 EURASIA Cup (w, 1-2)
Sweden continues to produce exceptional golf talent, and Norén is the heir-apparent to the Parnevik-Jacobson-Stenson progeny. Norén sits seventh in the World Points standings (automatic qualifier), 16th in the European Points standings (immediately behind countryman Alex Bjork, who won the Volvo China Open at the end of April).
The 2017 BMW PGA was a defining moment in Norén’s career surge. His eagle on the 72 hole will live in Euro Tour lore. Photo cred: Ross Kinnaird/Getty Images
Norén has been building towards this Ryder Cup basically since the last putt dropped in Chaska in 2016. Starting in October of 2016, Norén has won three times on the European Tour, finished T-6 at the 2017 Open Championship, T-2 at the Farmers, T-16 at Riv, T-3 at the Honda, T-14 at the 2018 WGC-Mexico, and third at the 2018 WGC-Match Play. His MC at the Masters aside, I think you could make a great case that Norén should be a stronger lock than Casey (and probably Fitzpatrick) at this point. There’s no reason to think Norén is going to taper off in the next few months. Fair to call Norén a “virtual lock” as of now.
Paul Casey – @Paul_Casey
Age: 40 Current European Points ranking: #41 Current World Points ranking: #10 OWGR: #12 Notable prior match play experience: 2nd, 2009 and 2010 WGC-Match Play; T-17 2018 WGC-Match Play; 2018 EURASIA Cup (w, 2-1); Ryder Cup 2004 (w), 2006 (w), 2008; overall record 3-2-4)
Many regular readers of this column were remarkably triggered by the fact that I did not include Casey in my “locks.” Given that he had won the week prior at Valspar, I choose to believe there was some recency bias on display. Since March, Casey has continued to help his case, with a strong run of form including a T-17 at the Match Play, T-15 at the Masters, and a T-5 at the Wells Fargo.
Definitely saucy to have a pin-up style photo of your smokeshow wife as a phone case, but…uh…Paul…you’re looking at the wrong side of the phone, my friend. Photo cred: Golf News Net
I planned on a long, drawn out diatribe about why I wasn’t ready to lock-in Casey in Part I of this column. I hear you about how the qualification rules were re-written “just for” Casey, blah blah. AND YET: If the matches started this week, Paul Casey would still need a Captain’s Pick from Bjorn to make the squad (he’s currently tenth in the World Points and an all-but-cooked 41st in European Points). See, winning is overrated in all facets of professional golf…except for making a European Ryder Cup team (and particularly, this team). Although Casey has been consistently finding the first and second pages of leaderboards, he doesn’t play often in Europe and he has only won twice in his career on the PGA Tour.
In the end, I’m quite confident that Casey will be on Team Europe for the first time in a decade. But I’m not convinced he will be an automatic qualifier; we’ll call him a “virtual lock.” Another win this summer would seal the deal.
Rafa Cabrera-Bello – @RCabreraBello
Age: 33 Current European Points ranking: #12 Current World Points ranking: #13 OWGR: #25 Notable prior match play experience: 3rd, 2016 WGC-Match Play; 2018 EURASIA Cup (w, 1-1-1); 2016 Ryder Cup (2-0-1)
RCB gave us an all-time great albatross last year at The Players, 16th Hole, Final Round, and an even better reaction. Photo cred: Ten Golf/PGA Tour
The Notorious R-C-B: certifiable #menace, low-key gun show ticket purveyor, and all-around stud with a game that travels #allovertheworld! Rafa sits at twelfth in the European Points and thirteenth in the World Points. His prior experience as a Rookie at the 2016 Ryder Cup (record 2-0-1, paired with Garcia, won Friday Fourball 3 & 2 over Holmes/Moore; halved Saturday Foursomes against Reed/Spieth; beat Jimmy Walker 3 & 2 in Sunday Singles for 2.5 Points) makes him an alluring possible Captain’s pick on a team that will be fairly rookie-laden as it is. Rafa won the 2017 Aberdeen Asset Management Scottish Open (the 275 yard fairway metal he stuffed to eight feet in the playoff to clinch the victory will resonate with me for a long time) and has posted nearly a dozen top 25s combined across both Tours since.
Cabrera-Bello can–and should–do himself some favors over the summer, including his title defense in Scotland. Rafa seems due for another win, which would all but assure him a spot on the team. Even though he needs to put in some work this summer, as long as Cabrera-Bello remains inside the top 15 of both points lists, it will be very difficult for Bjorn to pass on his steady ball-striking and experience when it comes time to make the picks.
__________________________________________________________________________________________________
Although this segment is the “Last Five In,” I had to draw a hard line of demarcation before getting to the twelfth and final
Source: https://nolayingup.com/blog/the-eurozone-9-ryder-cup-part-ii-the-french-connection