Tour Confidential: Rory? Tiger? Phil? Spieth? Who should be the Masters favorite?
GOLF.com conducts a weekly roundtable with writers from Sports Illustrated and GOLF Magazine. Check in every Sunday night for the unfiltered opinions of our writers and editors and join the conversation by tweeting us @golf_com.
1. Rory McIlroy won the Arnold Palmer Invitational with a final-round 64, picking up his first PGA Tour title since the 2016 Tour Championship — and jacking the already frenzied anticipation for the Masters. Rory? Tiger? Phil? Spieth? Forget the Vegas lines — who’s your early favorite to slip on the green jacket?
Michael Bamberger, senior writer, GOLF: Rory, followed by Langer. I’m so committed to this powerful European one-two combo I can’t let go of it now.
Alan Shipnuck, senior writer, GOLF (@AlanShipnuck: But can Rory putt those greens with anything like this confidence? If so, he has to be the favorite. But something about Augusta National unnerves him every year. I still think Dustin is the favorite.
John Wood, caddie for Matt Kuchar (@johnwould): I would honestly say I’d take even money between Phil and Tiger. That may seem crazy with all the studs ready to take on Augusta National, but for some reason, if you haven’t done it before, beating someone who already has a green jacket (or three, or four) is a daunting task. With both of these guys seemingly on form, that amazing golf course more than any other we play takes knowledge and confidence. If you’ve done it before, you know you can. If you haven’t, you will always wonder.
Sean Zak, associate editor, GOLF.com (@sean_zak): I must say, it’s endearing to see Michael excited to make a prediction! The way he is putting, Tiger Woods is a legitimate top-three favorite. But by the time Augusta comes back around, I’ll hang with DJ. If his yearly schedule doesn’t change, he’ll play the Match Play and Houston, priming himself for a course he has good history at.
Dylan Dethier, associate editor, GOLF.com (@dylan_dethier): Look at us, all prisoners of the moment. Let’s not forget one Jordan Spieth! But yeah, I’d have a hard time betting against TW, and it’s fun as hell to have Rory peaking at the right time.
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Josh Sens, contributing writer, GOLF (@JoshSens): All those picks above are solid bookie chalk-line choices. Hard to bet heavily against any of them. But I’ll stick with the same pick I’ve made over the past month. Justin Rose. He’s in great form, and has come so close before on a course where experience means so much. I’ll take him by a shot over Jason Day.
Jeff Ritter, digital development editor, GOLF.com (@Jeff_Ritter): Rose is my pick, too (although I’m starting to waver!), but I think the odds-on favorite should be Spieth because of his track record there, followed by DJ. But whatever the case, the fact that so many stars are peaking at once makes this one of the most wildly anticipated Masters in several years.
2. Improved putting no doubt powered McIlroy’s play at Bay Hill, but he also noted Friday that he has “rediscovered my love for the game so much so I am even enjoying playing casual rounds of golf as well.” What part of McIlroy’s performance should his fans be most jazzed about?
Bamberger: Well, that’s a huge statement, and Rory is often candid about these things. As a starting point, you can’t do something at a world-class level without loving it. He and his father have been logging some rounds in South Florida and I think Gerry’s unadulterated pure love for the game must have something to do with what Rory is describing.
Shipnuck: That was intriguing, because the last few years Rory seemed low-energy between the ropes. I ‘spose injuries and putting problems will do that. Per Mike’s point, it was a blast watching Rory and Gerry together at the Crosby Clambake. Throw in the fact that he’s happily married and finally a resident of the U.S. and it’s clear that all is right in Rory’s world. If he has a smile on his face at the Masters, look out.
Wood: There isn’t any part of his performance I’m not hugely impressed with. But if I had to choose, his putting. Those greens at Bay Hill looked pure and fast, and if he putts anything like that at Augusta, he will be right there Sunday afternoon.
Zak: If he putts anything like he did this week, he’ll win every event he enters. Optimism-inducing stuff from his flatstick, that’s for sure. I don’t want to call it a fluke, but he’s really never putted better. I’ll be excited for his prospects if he putts well on Thursday, April 5.
Dethier: It’s always hard to figure out how to weigh Rory’s optimism-speak, and I’m sure it’s easiest to love the game when he’s playing well. But it looked like he was having a ton of fun being in the mix with some of the game’s best. What I was most impressed by was his seeing “WOODS” creeping up the leaderboard and then pulling off an absurd closing stretch to slam the door on the competition (and the accompanying narratives).
Sens: Putting, clearly. But also distance control with his wedges. That’s been a weakness during his recent struggles. No sign of that at Bay Hill.
Ritter: Has Rory ever led a field in strokes gained putting before last week? He probably has, but I bet it’s been a while. If he carries that momentum on the greens over to Augusta, look out.
3. Tiger Woods mounted a Sunday charge at Bay Hill before coming undone with an O.B. tee shot on 16. As good as Woods’s game has looked during this comeback, his driver has been a weakness (he ranks 148th in Strokes Gained: Off The Tee). Woods has already proven he can contend, but if he doesn’t straighten out his driver, can he win?
Bamberger: Well, if Carnoustie is dry, yes, because he can driving-iron it to death. The other three majors will be more trying, but Augusta is wide open — in places — and you don’t have to be so perfect with the driver there. Ordinary Tour stops, I don’t know. All depends on where he plays.
Shipnuck: You don’t have to be perfect but you do have to hit a lot of them. That drive on 16 today was shocking — talk about The Big Miss. The strength of Tiger’s game used to be his head, but he admitted that bad swing was the product of a mental error. Throw in the fear he displayed on the 72nd hole at Valspar and I think the driver will be too much of a liability for him to overcome at the Masters.
Wood: Yes. The way the ball goes now, there are honestly only a handful of holes (if you hit it as far as Tiger does) where you HAVE to hit driver. If he finds a shape he can depend on, he can absolutely win.
Dethier: I bet he drives it well at Augusta. What he needs is comfortable shots where he can be aggressive, and the tee balls at Augusta promote that sort of mentality with driver. Love that two-iron, too.
Zak: He doesn’t have to “straighten out” his driver as much as he just has to average-out his driver. Get himself to the point where he’s not losing strokes to the field with that club. He’s a magical ball-striker and currently one of the best putters on Tour, so just getting closer to average will incite a win (and possibly more).
Sens: He’s T5 and T2 in consecutive weeks. For sure he can win. Whether he will soon is another matter. As if we needed any reminders, Bay Hill gave us a Sunday leaderboard of thoroughbreds thundering down the stretch. Tiger is now going to have to outrace a younger generation he helped create. It can be done, but it’s